Three Games In, By Eric Pincus, for HOOPSWORLD.com, Oct 21, 2004, 03:43
The Los Angeles Lakers prepare for the meat of their pre-season schedule with four games in the next five days. Starting with the Golden State Warriors on Thursday, the Lakers will see the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday, the Phoenix Suns on Sunday and the Seattle SuperSonics on Monday. Playing half of the eight pre-season contests in a short period will be a good test to see just how ready the Lakers are for the regular season.
Thus far LA has had a very easy schedule. They lost the first game of the exhibition schedule to the Sonics with a much depleted Laker roster. They had the early lead but as the game wore on, the starters tired. With no bench to turn to the Sonics overtook the Lakers and got the victory.
The next couple of games were against the Warriors (who are not likely to have a banner year) and the Sacramento Kings (who had just played in returned from China two days prior). The Kings barely played their starters as the entire group tried to recover from some serious jet lag.
Although the Lakers have won two out of three and had a legitimate shot to win the first had they a healthy bench, the competition has been so light there's no real way to evaluate this Laker unit. Of the next four opponents, once again LA is not facing the cream of this year's NBA crop. Only Phoenix will likely make a run at the playoffs, but at least the pair of back-to-backs should make the endeavor a much more difficult challenge.
The Roster
With the enormous turnover from last years' roster, training camp has been much more important than previous seasons. Instead of working on integrating the few new players into the triangle, the Lakers are working to build a new system around new players and a different coach. Thus far the biggest surprise has been the play of center Chris Mihm.
Before training camp was fully underway, Vlade Divac herniated a disk in his back which opened the door for Mihm. Arriving to LA via the Gary Payton\Rick Fox trade with the Boston Celtics, Chris has been an offensive and defensive presence in all three of the Laker pre-season games. If he can maintain a consistent level of play and stay healthy, he could be the steal of the summer for LA. Then again, three pre-season games against weaker competition makes that judgment a bit premature. Once Vlade gets healthy, Mihm will likely come off the bench.
Another surprise has been Coach Rudy Tomjanovich's decision to play Lamar Odom at power forward. In retrospect it's not such a shock. LA has an army of small forwards and needs depth at the four. Lamar has struggled to find his place thus far in the Laker system, but his play hasn't hurt the team. He contributes strong defense, hustle and playmaking. Unfortunately his shot has been off by a mile.
With Odom at the four, Caron Butler has room to start at small forward giving the team balance on offense and defense. Obviously Kobe Bryant is the primary scorer but even at 30 points a game, the Lakers will need at least another 60-75 points to win consistently. Butler gives the team another all-around scorer who is willing to attack the basket. Defensively Caron is very aggressive and strong and should be able to take over the Rick Fox enforcer role of the championship years. In other words, it'll be Butler's job to blanket players like Peja Stojakovic and Wally Szczerbiak.
The third surprise of the summer would be the excellent shooting of Brian Cook. After a disappointing showing in the summer league (injury was a factor), Cook was already tagged a bust. Now he seems to have suddenly figured out how to play. Rudy T attributes it to health. Brian credits Rudy for letting him play to his strengths. What Cook and Slava Medvedenko offer are power forwards with money outside shots. Although raw, Cook has more basketball smarts than Slava and could supplant him in the lineup. Currently Medvedenko is recovering from a bruised heel.
Long term, it'd be optimistic to expect Slava to improve significantly on the defensive end. Cook has a much greater upside as a hustle player who can generate steals. Neither will amount to much of a shot blocker.
In the meantime the Lakers have the dependable Brian Grant to throw into difficult situations where the team needs smart veteran play. When Vlade is healthy, the Lakers will have a pair of big men available who have seen their share of big games. Will that be enough to stop Tim Duncan or Kevin Garnett in the playoffs? Perhaps not but that's a long way away.
Thus far Devean George and Luke Walton have been out with injury. George will be recovering from ankle surgery until December. Walton should be back in action soon after spraining his ankle. With both down, Jumaine Jones has gotten a chance to play some decent minutes over the first three games. Although his outside shot hasn't proved reliable just yet, his defense and hustle has been impressive. Jumaine has also managed to score a bit, giving Laker GM Mitch Kupchak even more to think about. Deciding on the final Laker roster for the season will not be easy.
Finally, Kareem Rush re-aggravated the tendon in his foot that has been bothering him since last season. He left after the first half of the first pre-season game and will probably have to work through pain all year.
Point guard?
Assuming Mihm can maintain a consistent level of play, the aforementioned Laker roster has a lot of positives. Again, this is based on three pre-season games against lighter talent, but that's all the organization has to go on thus far. What was left out of the discussion was the point guard position which is probably the biggest question mark heading into November.
The Lakers were not satisfied with the play and attitude of Gary Payton last season. They were not willing to overpay to keep Derek Fisher. When the trade went down with Boston that brought Chucky Atkins to the Lakers, the team hoped they'd have a guard who could play a solid 30-35 minutes of solid basketball. Unfortunately Chucky has not impressed over the first three games. His shot has been terrible, he hasn't racked up a ton of assists and his defense was never a strong point.
Sasha Vujacic has impressed but the original plan was not to give the rookie too many minutes. His frame is slight and he needs a lot of seasoning defensively before he can contribute a substantial role on the team.
The Lakers signed free agent point guard Tierre Brown who was a star in the NBDL after playing for Rudy T and the Rockets a couple of years ago. Brown has looked sharp in the two games he played this pre-season. He's quick and handles the ball very well. His defense hasn't really been tested but with a partially guaranteed contract, he's got a great chance to be the fifteenth player on the roster come opening day.
The fact that Vujacic and Brown seem as good if not better than the starter in Atkins is not a good sign. None appear to be able to start on a playoff bound NBA team. Not to say either won't improve or develop over time, but it's pretty clear that the Lakers biggest weakness right off the bat is point guard . . . especially defensively.
Camp Invites
Tierre is the only invite with a partially guaranteed deal which gives him the edge. The most LA can carry is 15 and with 14 players locked in with guaranteed deals, there's but one spot for the six players trying to make the team.
Nate Johnson, Neil Yankee, Jerry Dupree and Ike Nwankwo are currently under contract with the team but none have a legitimate shot to stick.
The only other player who has a prayer is shooting guard Tony Bobbitt who was the standout on the Lakers' summer league team. Bobbitt can defend and isn't afraid to shoot. He hasn't been hitting a high percentage but he's aggressive offensively. The Lakers will need spot of shooters and if Bobbitt can defend and improve his shot, he would be a nice addition to the club.
Unfortunately for Tony, the best chance he has to stick is if the Lakers make a trade before opening day. Tomjanovich mentioned that he liked Tony's play and that the franchise would try to help get Bobbitt a spot on another NBA team if they were forced to cut him.
A slight wrinkle would be Karl Malone indicating he wants to return, but at this point the team is under the assumption that he will not play for the Lakers or any other team this season. If he did come later in the season, a roster spot would need to be created for him.
Trade Bait?
The Lakers have some players who are very unlikely to be traded any time soon: Kobe, Grant, Odom, Divac, Mihm, Medvedenko, Butler and Vujacic. If Brown or any other camp invite were kept, they couldn't be traded until December 15th.
That leaves George, Atkins, Jones, Rush, Cook and Walton as the theoretically available pieces.
Devean's contract is not entirely appealing since he has two years left. Since he's injured, it'd be hard to move him unless the Lakers packaged him in with one of their brighter prospects.
Jumaine has minimal interest leaguewide at best. He could be included as cap filler. If the team is reluctant to take on his extra year at $1.875, the Lakers could throw in some cash as offset.
Chucky wouldn't seem likely to go unless LA got a very established point guard in return. Unless the Lakers do not like what they see to a point that it's a serious problem, Atkins is not likely to be moved in the near future. He's more likely to go out next season when he enters the last year of his contract.
Is Cook playing so well because he turned a corner or are the Lakers showcasing him? Tough call. Long term he may be a better fit than Slava but if the Lakers can get enough interest he could be better served as trade bait.
The remaining players are the gems the Lakers do not want to move, Walton and Rush. Luke is a special player capable of altering the outcome of a game by his playmaking. Game two of the NBA Finals was no miracle; he was responsible for at least three regular season victories as well. Rush got the Lakers to the finals with his three-point outburst in game six of the Western Conference Finals.
It'd be easier to lose Walton in the sense that the team has plenty of depth at his position. If the Lakers moved Rush, Bobbitt would become more valuable to the team as Kobe's back up. Could he make up for the loss of Kareem's outside shot?
LA could possibly consider moving Rush simply because of his injury. If he's damaged goods, move him before his value plummets.
Trade Targets?
The longstanding rumor of Luke Walton for Marcus Banks still has legs. The Celtics are losing patience with Banks game by game. He'd bring the defensive prowess the Lakers need. His playmaking leaves a lot to be desired but with both Kobe and Odom strongest when initiating the offense, Banks is a good fit for the team. He'd be a strong tandem with Vujacic depending on match ups. You need to get the offense flowing put in Sasha. Mike Bibby shooting lights out? Put in Banks. The original rumor had Devean George and Yogi Stewart included in the deal. Whether it's a two, four or zero player remains to be seen.
Another rumor that just popped up, although unsubstantiated, was Antonio Daniels of the Seattle SuperSonics. The problem there is Laker bait. Seattle doesn't need any small forwards and need a second point guard if they give up Daniels. The team is badly in need of legitimate size and Brian Cook doesn't seem to fit the bill.
A wild rumor that LA would try to go after Jameer Nelson and Tony Battie after December 15th seems doubtful. Right now the team is focused on the opening day roster, not making deals that can't be executed for a couple of months. The same rumor mentioned Hedo Turkoglu as a possible Laker target but that's ludicrous with LA's depth at small forward and shooting guard. Why pay $37 million for a player the team doesn't need . . . who happens to be base year compensation anyway (which means it'd be very difficult to make the cap numbers work).
There are a few teams struggling with overstocked rosters who may have to waive a point guard if they can't work out a trade. Possible players include Frank Williams or Mike Wilks from the Chicago Bulls and Troy Bell or Antonio Burks from the Memphis Grizzlies. But would the Lakers be confident that any of these player off the waiver wire would be better than the trio of Atkins, Vujacic and Brown?
The key is making a roster spot since the Bulls and Grizzlies wouldn't be able to take a player from the Lakers. With fourteen guaranteed contracts, Brown would have to go unless the Lakers moved one of their trade pieces.
The Bottom Line
The Lakers have five more pre-season games before they have to decide on the final roster. They have some trade options but none that are obvious guarantees to improve the club. The most likely course of action is that the team keeps Tierre Brown, cuts Tony Bobbitt and waits to see how well the team performs in November. If by December the defense at point is the Achilles' heel, Luke Walton for Marcus Banks could be the fallback position.
The Celtics are expected to move Banks before the trade deadline . . . but will it be to the Lakers?
In the meantime, the team has looked good thus far. Even if the championship is a stretch, the team will be fun to watch. They'll run, hustle and try to win every night. The dramas of seasons past will be replaced by a young group of hopefuls trying to build a new legacy.
The prediction: 44 wins with the current roster and the seventh playoff seed with the current roster. If Tierre Brown proves over the pre-season that he's the back up point guard, a trade goes through or the unexpected happens . . . that prediction may go up before November.
If Karl Malone returns of Marcus Banks is acquired, 48 wins seems likely. If both Malone and Banks are onboard, could be over 50 . . . but Karl looks like he's done for the year if not his career.
The key for the Lakers will be to beat out both the Sacramento Kings and Phoenix Suns. If they can attain the Pacific Division title, they'll be assured at least a third seeding and home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. That has to be the goal above win total and individual achievement . . . win the division.