Limbo for the Lakers, By Eric Pincus for HOOPSWORLD.com, Dec 5, 2004, 07:16

The Record Thus Far The Los Angeles Lakers have played just over 20% of the 2004-5 NBA season and are 10-7 (58.8%). My original prediction was 44-48 wins which should give them a reasonable shot at a lower seed in the Western Conference, especially if they get closer to 48. I had LA at 10-5 through the end of November, but they dropped an extra game and finished 9-6. That would seem to knock their upside down to 47, unless they can make up another game elsewhere. I predicted the outcomes of all but five games in November. Who knew the Magic would be so strong? Who knew the Rockets would be so weak? The Suns certainly weren't supposed to be leading the Pacific Division. The Lakers should've defended their home court against the Kings. Beating the Bucks in Milwaukee was a surprise, but apparently they're also not the best the NBA has to offer.

The Chicago game would have been a great opportunity to gain some ground, but like I predicted before the season, the Lakers let the game slip away. This month is one of the easiest all season for the Lakers, they have to capitalize.

With seven of the next ten at home, LA needs to win seven to keep pace . . . or eight to get back on track to 48. Expect losses in Seattle and Sacramento, two of the three road games. Beating the Clippers won't be easy, but it's doable. Seeping, the Suns, Magic, Wizards, Grizzlies, Hornets and Raptors at home isn't a lock. Phoenix especially will give the Lakers a strong challenge. As far as Miami, I'm expecting Shaquille O'Neal to have a monster night and a moment of victory in his personal battle against his former franchise. Short term, the Shaq trade was a loss for LA, but down the road it will likely stand as a exceptional move.

Lakers lose one or two more than they're supposed to, they drop closer and closer to 44. If they drop below that, the playoffs become a real stretch. January is a difficult month. March even harder. Don't ask about April.

Here's the home stretch to the playoffs:

San Antonio and Memphis back-to-back At Phoenix. Houston in LA but the next night at Seattle. At Sacramento and the next night at home hosting the Suns. Sacramento again, but in LA. Dallas at Staples with a trip to Golden State the next night. At Portland.

That's an eleven game stretch against extremely tough competition. Think the Lakers don't need a cushion?

The team's that the Lakers have beaten this season have a combined record of 39-87. The teams that they have lost to have are 66-49. Part of building a winning season involves feasting on the weak, but the Lakers have to show they can compete against quality franchises if they want to have a chance at a playoff berth.

Needs The Lakers have very clear needs. They need a point guard who can defend, fight through screens and spot up for open shots. A bonus would be true point that can create offense and set the table for Kobe Bryant, Odom and Butler. The defensive need is greater wit just Chucky Atkins, Tierre Brown and Sasha Vujacic trying to get it done.

LA could use serious help on the boards. Odom has been consistent, but time and time again the Lakers give up too many offensive rebounds.

The Lakers could use in inside player who can attack the basket from the low post. Chris Mihm has shown that he is capable in stretches, but too often he's in foul trouble. Odom doesn't seem to have the body to bang down low for his points.

Again, the defensive side of the game is the greater need. Cut the offense off at the head (the point guard), protect the rim and get the rebound. Seems simple but clearly it's not. Every team has some level of weakness, but the Lakers have some glaring holes.

With the possible return of Karl Malone, my guess is January 17th in Los Angeles against the Utah Jazz, the Lakers may decide to wait on the big and go after the need at guard. Karl, if healthy and at the top of his game, could certainly provide a boost. He's clearly not the long term solution, but a capable band aid to help get this Laker squad a playoff berth.

Yao and Amare Earlier, I pleaded with the Lakers to give up on the cap space dream. Should the Lakers continue to hope that Yao Ming or Amare Stoudamire could fall into their laps when their contracts come up, they may miss out on some attractive opportunities. To gain cap room in for the summer of 2007, the Lakers will have to let just about everyone on the team go to make cap room.

If the Lakers decided they wanted to build around Kobe and Odom, they could offer Yao or Amare a maximum contract of nearly $11 million, assuming the new collective bargaining agreement is similar to the current. The Laker organization may decide to avoid long term contracts until the new CBA is locked in since the final deal could change a number of variables

Assuming a cap of approximately $47 million in 2007, LA would have $44.6 million invested in Kobe, Odom and Yao. That would leave $2.4 towards a non-minimum player. The rest of the roster would have to be minimum deals. LA would likely have to let Butler, Mihm, Slava, George, Atkins, Grant, Walton and others go without compensation. Perhaps Brian Cook or Vujacic could be kept or whatever else LA gets in the next three drafts. They'd have to trade away at least one or two first rounds as well.

A different path would be to trade Odom for a contract ending before the summer of 2007. If Butler was kept at a reasonable salary near $6.5 million and the Lakers signed Yao or Amare, the organization would still have $10 million to spend. In fact if Butler was convinced to take $5.5 million, technically the Lakers could sign both. Yao and Amare at $11 million, Kobe at $19.5 and Butler at $5.5 is exactly $47 million. The remaining 8-11 players would have to be signed for the minimum.

Here's the reality check though. Both Yao and Amare will be restricted free agents. Their respective teams can simply match the Laker offers and there's nothing that LA can do about it. This also counts on both players not agreeing to extensions before they become available to begin with. The players could try and demand a trade to the Lakers, but why do their respective teams agree to send them to LA? What leverage would the player's have? Not much, other than agreeing to a one year tender which would probably be enough to keep the Lakers out of the mix.

So both are possible but unlikely to the point of miracle. Getting one isn't much more probable. Waiting an extra year for either to become unrestricted free agents would involve a total of four years of spinning wheels waiting for the day. That's more than half of Kobe's contract, no way the Lakers waste it.

Could Yao demand a trade to LA? Sure, but again without leverage there's little that a player finishing up their rookie contract can do to force a team's hand.

Bait Presently it would seem the Lakers have Kareem Rush, Luke Walton, Devean George and Slava Medvedenko on the market. Brian Grant can be had, but with one of the worst contracts in the league, he's not going anywhere soon. Medvedenko is BYC, which means it can be difficult to do a small two-team trade with his contract. Clearly Brian Cook has taken over the role of shooter at the forward position. His pick and pop with Kobe has proven to be quite effective.

LA would like to keep the trio of Kobe, Odom and Butler. Vlade is not likely to be moved. Unless a starting point guard is available, Atkins is unmovable. Tierre Brown has little or no trade value. Jumaine Jones could be a throw in, but the Lakers seem to like what he brings to the table. Mihm has been impressive enough to suggest the Lakers have him in their long term plans.

If the losses mount, perhaps LA accepts that one of Odom or Butler has to go, but more likely they fight through it and see what is available next off-season.

Rafer Alston When the Toronto Raptors' point guard, Rafer Alston, had a melt-down the other day, he lamented that he not only wanted out of Toronto . . . but possibly out of the league. He was probably speaking out of emotion after a tough loss, but certainly the Lakers would have interest in Skip. He's locked in long term at a reasonable rate and is a capable point guard. He also has proven chemistry with the Miami guys: Caron Butler, Lamar Odom and Brian Grant.

Toronto has bigger problems than Alston. They want to move Vince Carter and Jalen Rose. They are stuck paying a terrible contract to Alvin Williams who is out for the season. Even worse, his contract is uninsured . . . so they have to pay every cent. The Raptors decided to keep Morris Peterson who was a restricted free agent, but now they have him under contract for three years and they haven't been fond of his game since he was a rookie. They also have $10 million invested in Lamond Murray who they don't need at that price either.

Seems it's Chris Bosh and 14 guys they'd part with in a second. Bosh isn't on the block and shouldn't be. The rest can be had at the right price.

That said, if the team can smooth things over with Alston, they'd probably like to keep him. The Lakers would have to offer the Raptors some financial relief and young talent to steal away Rafer.

With so much uncertainty regarding any Carter trade, the Raptors will likely sit on Alston and decide his fate when they have a more clear picture of the franchise's future.

Marcus Banks Currently this trade is dead with the loss of Delonte West to a broken hand. Banks has been playing very well lately and is not available at this time. Things could change, but that's where it currently stands.

Frank Williams There has been talk of a trade for Frank Williams of the Chicago Bulls. The Lakers would send Kareem Rush. Such a move is possible if not likely, but similarly to the Raptors, Chicago has some bigger personnel issues to worry about before dealing with the Lakers.

Eddie House Eddie was waived by the Charlotte Bobcats. He's not terrible, but he's primarily a shooting guard with a point guard height. He racks up a ton of steals, but he's never been considered a defensive stopper. It seems unlikely LA would waive Tierre to pick up Eddie.

Troy Bell Troy is still a free agent after getting cut from the Memphis Grizzlies. There has been no rumor of any Laker interest.

Jason Williams or Earl Watson With the change-over in Memphis, it's hard to say what their future plans are. Suffice it to say, the Lakers have little or no trade bait that would interest the Grizzlies. Stromile Swift for the record is not-tradable this season since he signed a one-year tender with the Grizzlies.

Baron Davis or Jason Kidd It just doesn't seem likely that the Lakers make a run at either All-Star caliber point. Needing to match huge contracts, LA doesn't have much trade bait. Unless the Hornets or Nets want Brian Grant, it's probably out of the question. And they don't want Brian Grant. Even if the Lakers were willing to take Alonzo Mourning's contract with Kidd's, it's still not likely to happen.

Nene, Skita or a second-round pick. The Nuggets are reportedly interested in Kareem Rush, but he's not going to land LA Nene. Denver wants a center in return for him. The Lakers could make a run at Nikoloz Tskitishvili, but he doesn't fit the team's needs. With recently received medical exception, the Nuggets could take Rush for a second round pick. Not LA's first choice, but a reasonable option if worse comes to worse.

Tyronn Lue The Rockets need help at the point, but if they don't think Lue is the answer and want a shooter in Rush, perhaps they make a move within the Western Conference. It doesn't seem likely though.

Samuel Dalembert, Kenny Thomas and Kevin Ollie Here is s a doozy I came up with. Lakers send Caron Butler, Devean George and Kareem Rush to the Sixers for the trio above. The Sixers give up a young, talented, and defensive-minded big and a pair of long contracts that just so happen to fill needs the Lakers have. Thomas is undersized, but Coach Rudy T has already coached him successfully in Houston. Ollie is steady an unimpressive, but at least he knows his role.

LA gives up a player that Kobe has seemingly bonded with (Butler), which makes it unlikely in that regard. It does answer a lot of the Laker needs, but the Sixers don't necessarily need three more wing players. Sure the organization would be happy getting out of the contracts of Ollie and Thomas, but with Kyle Korver, Andre Igoudala, Willie Green and John Salmons . . . Butler, George and Rush seem overkill. The Sixers could use some more meat up front, but trade two bigs for small forwards?

The Bottom Line The Lakers are not the perfect team. They haven't won consistently and this is the easy part of the schedule. They need help defensively at the point and inside at the four\five. The organization does not seem ready to take in any long term contracts that could interfere with a run at Yao Ming or Amare Stoudamire. There are a number of free agents who may be available for part or all of the mid level exception next season. Karl Malone may return to stop some of the bleeding.

The CBA will be renegotiated which adds even more complicated variables to the situation.

The path for the Kobe-led Lakers is not clear yet. A championship contender is not born overnight. It will be some time before the Lakers are ready for a strong playoff run.

If I had to bet cash money on what move the Lakers do make . . . add Karl Malone and Frank Williams . . . subtract Kareem Rush and Tierre Brown.

Breaking News: The Charlotte Bobcats and Los Angeles Lakers appear close to a deal that would send Kareem Rush to the Cats for a second round draft pick. That would kill any Frank Williams deal and affirms that the Lakers are not interested in bringing Eddie House on a guaranteed contract. It also opens a roster spot for Karl Malone and gives Tierre Brown some job security since his contract is not guaranteed. In the short term, LA can bring back Tony Bobbitt without locking him in for the entire season. Otherwise, LA will simply play Caron Butler as the back up two guard.