Fifteen Things to Think About, By Eric Pincus for HOOPSWORLD.com, Apr 18, 2005, 04:04
Thankfully the season will finally end for the moribund Los Angeles Lakers. When the highlight of the final week is Luke Walton trying to get one final assist to notch his first career triple-double (he finished short with nine assists), something has gone horribly awry. Some random Laker thoughts as the last days near . . .
1) Trading Shaquille O'Neal may still have been the right move. Mitch Kupchak's argument for why he unloaded the O'Neal has been well documented. If the Miami Heat win the NBA Championship this year, Kupchak's argument falls apart. If he believed the Lakers couldn't win again with Shaq, Kobe Bryant and a cast of role players . . . why would the Heat be able do it with Shaq, Dwyane Wade and a cast of role players? If the Heat don't win it all, the Laker decision gains credibility. If O'Neal never wins another ring . . . even more so.
2) Brian Grant's contract is not an immediate issue. Sure it is for Dr. Buss, who has to pay it, but if his contract was magically wiped off the books next year, LA would still be over the salary cap. It's not until Grant's final year that he negatively impacts the Laker cap position. At that point, however, he'll be a large expiring contract that has the potential to be moved via trade. Would it be better for the Lakers not to pay Grant $30 million over the next couple of seasons? Sure, but it's not the reason the Lakers were awful this year . . . and it's not the reason LA can't pick up a big-dollar free agent this summer.
3) The Lakers have three picks in this years' draft. They have their own first and second-round picks. They also have New York's second round-pick. Other sources have suggested that it's the Atlanta Hawks' second-round pick . . . but that is erroneous. This has been verified directly with the Lakers.
4) If the Toronto Raptors, Golden State Warriors and New York Knicks win their final games, and the Lakers lose their final two . . . all four teams will finish with the same record. In the unlikely scenario, each team would receive roughly 26 "ping pong balls" of the possible 1,000 combinations. That translates into roughly a 10% chance that the Lakers could move up to a top three pick. Where they currently stand at ten gives them approximately a 4% chance of moving up. To put it another way, best case scenario the Lakers have a 90% chance of NOT getting a top three pick through the lottery. Ties are broken randomly, so if there was a four-way tie and none of the teams win the lottery, the Lakers could luck into the seventh pick. It seems quite a long shot, but the Warriors and Raptors have a decent chance to win out. Watching the Lakers play since the All-Star break, they certainly have the opportunity to lose out.
5) Lamar Odom is going to have shoulder surgery for a torn labrum. He'll be out for up to four months which shouldn't conflict with training camp. He could have avoided surgery, but the possibility of his shoulder not healing on it's owner properly was too big of a risk. Had the Lakers been interested in trading Odom, moving a near-max player off of surgery is not an easy task. Expect Lamar to be in a Laker uniform next season.
6) Just because Kobe and Caron Butler seem close, doesn't mean the Lakers won't trade Butler.
7) Teams aren't going to go out of their way to send talent to the Lakers. In fact they'll probably do their best not to help the Lakers, unless LA is giving them the absolute best offer. In other words, LA will probably have to overpay to get a deal done . . . which is probably why the Boston Celtics have a future Laker first-round draft pick.
8) With the season nearly done, the Lakers are averaging 98.5 ppg, twelfth best in the league. The team's adjusted field goal percentage (adjusting for three-point field goals), the Lakers are eleventh (48.6%). Though not necessarily pretty to watch, the Lakers offense wouldn't suggest lottery. Defensively, the Lakers are 25th, yielding 101.2 ppg and giving up an adjusted field goal percentage of 49.0%. In other words, the problem is they don't play defense. Whether it be the second worst 6.1 steals per game or the tie for absolute worst 11.1 forced turnovers per game . . . the Lakers need to acquire defensive-minded players to improve. That doesn't mean they need to bring in specialists who can't score a lick. They just better make sure they don't continue the steady stream of matadors (Brian Cook, Sasha Vujacic, Chucky Atkins, Slava Medvedenko, Tierre Brown, etc).
9) The Lakers should bring back Luke Walton. He may not ever be a regular NBA starter, but he could be a very effective bench player. Rudy Tomjanovich didn't seem to "get" Walton's game. With a real, complex offensive system in place, Walton could be a nice eighth man. He's a restricted free agent who wouldn't seem likely to get offers larger than the lower level exception. If Caron Butler, Devean George or even Jumaine Jones gets traded, LA may need to hold on to a small forward and Walton would be a good choice. Jones has been a nice surprise and would be another player the Lakers should hold onto . . . unless he's needed to match salaries when the Lakers are ready to make their move.
10) If the Lakers do not exercise the option on Brian Cook's rookie contract, they'll have $21 million in expiring contracts (Atkins, Divac, George, Medvedenko, Jones and Cook). Butler's recent play has been astounding and his trade value should be relatively high. Unfortunately he's a small forward, one of the more overstocked positions in the league. Just about everyone needs a point guard and some size . . . exactly what the Lakers lack. Then again, a team may be interested in Sasha Vujacic or Brian Cook . . . along with an expiring contract. It's doubtful teams will be knocking down the door for the Lakers' trade assets, but they have a lot more to offer than what they did at the recent trade deadline.
11) The Lakers aren't that far off from being a contender.
12) The Lakers aren't that far off from being a lottery regular.
13) Time to stop piling on Kobe Bryant. He has plenty of faults but as much as he's part of the problem . . . he has the potential to be an even bigger part of the solution. If the Lakers put a strong, balanced team around him and he's still shooting 43% with the team still in the lottery, than have at him. By the way Kevin Garnett and (possibly) LeBron James are missing the playoffs too.
14) Mitch Kupchak has this summer to cement his legacy. Will he always be the fool who traded Shaquille O'Neal? Or will he be remembered at the guy who rebuilt the Lakers after a small lull? Overwhelming, the doubters say he's the wrong guy for the job but it's too early to judge. If he can turn the bait he didn't trade at the deadline into the right players, tanking the 2004-5 season may have been the right move.
15) Best wishes to Vanessa Bryant who is having complications in the early stages of pregnancy. An ectopic pregnancy is an extremely difficult experience both physically an emotionally. The viability is beyond doubtful and future fertility can be affected. Hopefully this story will have a happy ending.